Amid fears over terrorism, polls hint at the revival of a group that has previously shifted to the GOP
Supporters listen as Sen. Ted Cruz speaks at Charlie's Steakhouse during a campaign stop in Carroll, Iowa, this past week. PHOTO: MARK KAUZLARICH/REUTERS
As a group, women lean Democratic. But if the recent rise of terrorism fears persists, the Republican Party could well make gains.
Already, signs are emerging of the return of “security moms,” the women who moved toward the GOP after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks made national security a dominating concern. These women were credited with helping to deliver seats to the Republican Party in both the House and Senate in 2002, a tough feat for a president’s party in a midterm year.
Signs of a “security mom” revival today are incipient, but they bear watching. Here is one potential signal: In weighing the costs of the government’s hunt for terrorists, women are worrying more about stopping attacks and less about intruding on people’s privacy.
When The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll asked a year ago which worried them more—that the U.S. wouldn’t go far enough in monitoring potential terrorists, or that it would go too far and violate citizens’ privacy rights—half of women voters said the greater importance was stopping terrorism. A smaller share, 43% of women, worried more about the government intruding on privacy—a seven-point gap.
By this December, after the attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif., 61% of women said the bigger concern was a failure to monitor terrorists, with only 33% saying privacy rights were more important—a 28-point gap.
Men also put an increased emphasis on stopping terrorism over privacy rights, but the move among them over the past year was more modest.
Terrorism fears have the potential to move voters toward the Republican Party because voters tend to see it as doing a better job on national security. The GOP’s lead over Democrats on that issue, for example, was 12 percentage points in a December survey by the Pew Research Center. It found that 46% of adults believed the GOP would do a better job handling terrorism, compared with 34% who named the Democratic Party.
The danger to Democrats also surfaced in an interesting CNN/ORC International result from its December survey: Women were more likely than men to approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance. But when it came to his handling of terrorism, the gender roles were reversed.
Only 35% of women approved of Mr. Obama’s performance on terrorism, compared with 64% who disapproved—a gap of nearly 30 points. Among men, the gap was 15 points, with 42% approving and 57% disapproving. Should that dynamic persist, the president’s low marks on terrorism could become a burden for the Democratic nominee.
Among other signs of heightened terrorism concerns: Among women, 34% in December’s Journal/NBC News poll said they worried that they or a loved one would be the victim of a terror attack, compared with 24% of men. (The concern was up five percentage points among both genders compared with just a few weeks earlier.)
Right now, the presidential contest seems tight. Asked which party should control the White House after 2016—with no candidate names attached—44% of voters said Democrats and 44% said Republicans in December’s Journal/NBC News poll. But there was a big gender split, as is typical: 48% of women wanted a Democratic White House, while 48% of men wanted a Republican president.
If Democrats find support among women softening in coming months, national security could be a big part of the explanation.
Write to Aaron Zitner at aaron.zitner@wsj.com
Republicans Hope for a Boost From ‘Security Moms’
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1/09/2016
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